After Irma, Failed State Indicators: Destruction and Defection

Go Lean Commentary

CU Blog - After Irma, Barbuda Becomes a 'Ghost Town' - Photo 3What happens after a community is devastated by a catastrophic hurricane?

Many things; mostly all bad:

This is not just theoretical; this is the current disposition in the Caribbean after the recent Category 5 Hurricane Irma. These descriptors are all indicative of a Failed State status. This is a familiar theme for this movement behind the 2013 book Go Lean…Caribbean – available to download for free – (and the subsequent blog-commentaries). The book opens (Page 3) with this introduction to the subject of failure in the Caribbean:

Failure is just too familiar. Already we have member-states …  on the verge of a Failed-State status… . These states are not contending with the challenges of modern life: changing weather patterns, ever-pervasive technology, and the “flat world” of globalization. To reverse the fortunes of these failing states, and guide others in the opposite direction to a destination of prosperity, the Caribbean must re-boot the regional economy and systems of commerce.

CU Blog - After Irma, Failed-State Indicator - Death or Diaspora - Photo 1Hurricanes are tied to failure and Failed-State Indicators. The consequences of hurricanes are more than just natural, there is also the preponderance for people to leave their homelands afterwards – to defect. See a related story (article & VIDEO) in the Appendix below in which a family sought asylum in Canada for refuge from their devastated community.

In Failed-State formal-speak, the Go Lean book (Page 271) details 2 indicators or indices: Mounting Demographic Pressures (DP) and Massive Movement of Refugees (REF). These downward movements are indicators of Failed-State status – a bad report on the Fail-State index is simply a reflection of a miserable existence in society:

  • Mounting Demographic Pressures
    Pressures on the population such as disease and natural disasters make it difficult for the government to protect its citizens or demonstrate a lack of capacity or will. This indicator include pressures and measures related to:
    Natural Disaster, Disease, Environment, Pollution, Food Scarcity, Malnutrition, Water Scarcity, Population Growth, Youth or Age Bulge, and Mortality
  • Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs
    Forced uprooting of large communities as a result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease, lack of clean water, land competition, and turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitarian and security problems, both within and between countries. This indicator refers to refugees leaving or entering a country. This indicator include pressures and measures related to:
    Displacement, Refugee Camps, IDP (Internally Displaced Persons) Camps, Disease Related to Displacement, Refugees per capita, and IDPs per capita.

This commentary completes the 4-part series on the Aftermath of Hurricane Irma. There are a lot of mitigation and remediation efforts that can be done to lessen the impact of this and future storms. There are lessons that we must consider; there are reforms we must make; there are problems we must solve. The full list of the 4 entries of this series are detailed as follows:

  1. Aftermath of Hurricane Irma – America Should Scrap the ‘Jones Act’
  2. Aftermath of Hurricane Irma – Barbuda Becomes a ‘Ghost Town’
  3. Aftermath of Hurricane Irma – The Science of Power Restoration
  4. Aftermath of Hurricane Irma – Failed State Indicators: Destruction and Defection

Despite the manifested threats of Climate Change-fueled hurricanes, we must engage the heavy-lifting to make the Caribbean homeland a better place to live, work and play. Otherwise people flee the oppression, repression and suppression of being “home”.

In a previous blog-commentary about 19th Century Slavery Abolition icon Frederick Douglass, it revealed his theme when he went to the British island of Ireland to commiserate with that people on their oppression-repression-suppression plight. He asserted …

… that if an oppressed population didn’t find refuge, the only outcome would be Death or Diaspora.

The Diaspora prophecy happened, then in Ireland and today, especially here in the Caribbean! (In a previous blog, it was revealed that after 1840, emigration from Ireland became a massive, relentless, and efficiently managed national enterprise. In 1890 40% of Irish-born people were living abroad. By the 21st century, an estimated 80 million people worldwide claimed some Irish descent; which includes more than 36 million Americans who claim Irish as their primary ethnicity).

Caribbean citizens are also pruned to emigrate … to foreign shores (North America and Europe) seeking refuge. In a previous blog-commentary it was asserted that the US – the homeland  for Frederick Douglass – has experienced accelerated immigration in recent years. Published rates of societal abandonment among the college educated classes have reported an average of 70 percent in most member-states, with some countries (i.e. Guyana) tallying up to 89 percent. For this reason, there is solidarity for the Diaspora of Ireland and the Diaspora of the Caribbean.

The publishers of the Go Lean book are also steadfast and committed to one cause: arresting the societal abandonment of Caribbean communities. This would lessen the future Diaspora. This would be good!

The book Go Lean…Caribbean serves as a roadmap for the introduction and implementation of the technocratic Caribbean Union Trade Federation (CU), for the elevation of Caribbean society – for all member-states. This CU/Go Lean roadmap has these 3 prime directives:

  • Optimization of the economic engines in order to grow the regional economy to $800 Billion and create 2.2 million new jobs.
  • Establishment of a security apparatus to ensure public safety and protect the resultant economic engines. This security pact encompasses an emergency planning/response apparatus to deal with the reality of natural disasters. Otherwise, the affected population becomes refugees and the member-state moves towards Failed-State status. The CU mandate is to protect against any Failed-State encroachments.
  • Improve Caribbean governance to support these engines, including a separation-of-powers between the member-states and CU federal agencies.

The book stresses that reforming and transforming the Caribbean societal engines must be a regional pursuit. This was an early motivation for the roadmap, as pronounced in the opening Declaration of Interdependence (Pages 12 – 13):

xi. Whereas all men are entitled to the benefits of good governance in a free society, “new guards” must be enacted to dissuade the emergence of incompetence, corruption, nepotism and cronyism at the peril of the people’s best interest. The Federation must guarantee the executions of a social contract between government and the governed.

xii. Whereas the legacy in recent times in individual states may be that of ineffectual governance with no redress to higher authority, the accedence of this Federation will ensure accountability and escalation of the human and civil rights of the people for good governance, justice assurances, due process and the rule of law. As such, any threats of a “failed state” status for any member state must enact emergency measures on behalf of the Federation to protect the human, civil and property rights of the citizens, residents, allies, trading partners, and visitors of the affected member state and the Federation as a whole.

xvi. Whereas security of our homeland is inextricably linked to prosperity of the homeland, the economic and security interest of the region needs to be aligned under the same governance. Since economic crimes … can imperil the functioning of the wheels of commerce for all the citizenry, the accedence of this Federation must equip the security apparatus with the tools and techniques for predictive and proactive interdictions.

The Go Lean book provides 370-pages of turn-by-turn instructions on “how” to adopt new community ethos, plus the strategies, tactics, implementations and advocacies to execute so as to reboot, reform and transform the societal engines of Caribbean society, to reverse the trending to Failed-State status. Consider the Chapter excerpts and headlines from this sample on Page 134 entitled:

10 Ways to Improve Failed-State Indices


Lean-in for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation
This will allow for the unification of the region into one market of 42 million people across 30 member-states, thereby creating an economic zone to protect the interest of the participant trading partner-member-states. The GDP of the region will amount to $800 Billion (circa 2010). In addition, the treaty calls for a collective security agreement of the member states so as to ensure homeland security and assuage against systemic threats. The CU will ensure that law-and-order persist during times of distress. When a member state declares a State of Emergency, due to natural disaster or civil unrest, this triggers an automatic CU response – this is equivalent to the governmental dialing 911.


Image and Defamation
When a country’s primary foreign currency generator is tourism/hospitality, just the perception of a weak or failing state could be devastating. The index is a number that can rise and fall, like a credit score, so any upward movement in the index triggers the negative perception. The pressures are not only internal; there may be external entities that can have a defaming effect: credit rating, country risk, threat assessment, K-n-R (Kidnap and Ransom) insurance rates. The CU will manage the image of the region’s member-states against defamation and work to promote a better image.


Local Government and the Social Contract
The Social Contract is the concept that individuals have consented, either explicitly or tacitly, to surrender some of their freedoms and submit to the authority of the State in exchange for protection of their remaining rights (natural and legal). People therefore expect their government (national or municipal) to provide public safety, health, education and other services. The CU will facilitate overhead services for local governments and access to financial markets to fund capital infrastructure investments. The member-states will therefore have more accountability and reporting to CU institutions.


Law Enforcement Oversight
The CU will maintain jurisdiction for economic crimes and regional threats. Plus, the CU will collaborate and facilitate local law enforcement with grants of equipment and training to better fulfill their roles. Lastly, the regional security treaty will grant the CU the audit and compliance responsibility for “use of force” investigations and internal affairs.


Military and Political Monitoring
The CU will carefully monitor the activities of the military units (Army, Navy and Coast Guard) – this accountability will be the by-product of increased CU funding. The CU will assume the Judge Advocate General role for military justice affairs. For cross border engagements, the National armed forces will be marshaled by the CU’s Commander-in-Chief.


Crime/Homeland Intelligence
The CU will install advanced systems, processes, and personnel for intelligence gathering and analysis to assist public safety institutions. This includes terrestrial and satellite surveillance systems, phone eavesdropping, data mining and predictive modeling. The findings will be used to mitigate risks and threats (gangs, anarchy, and organized crime).


Minority and Human Rights 


Election Outsourcing


War Against Poverty
As a Trade Federation charged with facilitating the economic engines for the region, the CU operations will have positive effect on jobs and growing the local economies. The CU has a complete battle plan for the War on Poverty.


Big Data
The CU will embrace an e-Government and e-Delivery model. There will be a lot of data to collect and analyze. In addition, the CU Commerce Department will function as a regional OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development), accumulating and measuring economic metrics and statistical analysis. Any decline in Failed-State indices will be detected, and managed in both a predictive and reactionary manner.

The Caribbean must foster a better disaster preparation and response apparatus. We cannot just count on the kindness of strangers. America – the Super Power in our region – is busy … with it’s own hurricane aftermath. Our Way Forward must come from our own making. Otherwise, our people will just leave. People abandon the Caribbean homeland after every storm, not because of the severity of storms but the encroachments towards Failed-States status.

Failed-States = oppression, suppression and repression of the citizens of a country. This rule was true in the days of Frederick Douglass and it is true today:

If an oppressed people don’t find relief and refuge, the only outcome would be Death or Diaspora.

We must do better here in the Caribbean; we must make our homeland a better place to live, work and play. 🙂

Download the free e-book of Go Lean … Caribbean – now!

Sign the petition to lean-in for this roadmap for the Caribbean Union Trade Federation.


Appendix – Title: Family arrives in Ontario after fleeing Hurricane Irma

CU Blog - After Irma, Failed-State Indicator - Death or Diaspora - Photo 2

A family has abandoned their home in the Bahamas, and spent their life savings to escape the threat of Hurricane Irma.

Desiree Johnson and her two sons fled without a plan. They say they know they made an impulsive decision, but felt they had no other choice. The Johnsons arrived at PearsonInternationalAirport around 10:30 p.m. on Thursday.

“I didn’t sleep at all, I paced the floor, I walked, I tried to call. It was not a good feeling”, Johnson told CTV Barrie.

The family of three doesn’t have any relatives or friends in Toronto, but they say they know Canada is a country with a caring reputation.  They don’t know what tomorrow will bring, but they have already reached out to several community agencies looking for help.

Irma’s pounding of the southern Bahamas also brings back terrifying memories of a previous storm.

“It was very scary, we were out for about 2 months – no water, no lights, some places no food”, Johnson recalls. Her 35-year-old son, Jevon Johnson, says he found the meaning of terror during Hurricane Matthew.

The family is now planning on asking the federal government to remain in Canada. Johnson says she wants an opportunity for two of her three sons to start a new life. Her third son was left behind in Bahamas, as the family didn’t have enough money to escape all together.

Source: CTV News Posted September 8, 2017 from:


VIDEO – Bahamian Family Flee to Canada Seeking Refuge from Hurricane Irma –

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